African cotton sourced from leading producers like Benin, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad has long played a vital role in the global cotton supply chain. Prized for its quality, affordability, and growing adherence to sustainability standards, African cotton has found strong demand across Asia and Europe. Yet, in recent years and especially through 2024 into 2025, the market has experienced heightened volatility in pricing.
This article explores the core drivers behind the fluctuations in African cotton prices and offers insight into how manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals can respond.
Overview of the African Cotton Market
Africa accounts for approximately 5–7% of global cotton production, with most of its output exported. Cotton in West Africa, especially from countries like Benin and Mali, is largely grown by smallholder farmers under rain-fed conditions. Much of the region’s cotton is produced under sustainability frameworks, including the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI), making it more attractive to ethical buyers.
However, despite its promise, African cotton prices have remained unstable—often reacting to both global and regional variables.
Key Factors Driving Volatility
1. Global Demand Shifts
The biggest external factor impacting African cotton prices is the global demand landscape. Economic slowdowns in major textile-consuming nations like China, India, and Turkey often result in reduced purchasing activity, leading to downward price pressure.
In contrast, during periods of strong demand (e.g., post-pandemic recovery), prices tend to rise rapidly—often disproportionately—due to African exporters’ limited ability to scale up supply quickly.
2. Export Dependence and Logistic Bottlenecks
Nearly all of Africa’s cotton is exported. Delays or disruptions in port access (especially in landlocked countries like Mali and Burkina Faso) can cause price distortions. Events like:
- Strikes at African ports
- Political instability impacting road or rail transport
- Rising freight costs
- can all add uncertainty to cotton delivery timelines and cost structures, making buyers hesitant or demanding discounts.
3. Currency Instability
Many African countries rely on local currencies (like the CFA franc or Guinean franc) that are susceptible to devaluation. When currencies weaken against the US dollar (the standard trade currency for cotton), it can lead to abrupt price changes as exporters adjust their quotes to cover costs.
4. Climate and Weather Risks
African cotton is primarily rain-fed, making it vulnerable to rainfall variability and drought. Inconsistent weather patterns—worsened by climate change—have led to crop failures or subpar yields. These conditions can tighten supply, creating upward price pressure, or raise uncertainty, causing buyers to reduce commitments or negotiate harder.
5. Shifts in Sustainability Demand
As more brands demand BCI-certified or organic cotton, price premiums often emerge—but so does uncertainty. If sustainability-related costs increase and buyers resist higher prices, it can create disconnects between producers and buyers, leading to temporary oversupply or underpricing of certain varieties.
Volatility by the Numbers
According to TexPro data:
- The average month-on-month volatility in African BCI cotton prices (2024–2025) has ranged between 4.1% and 6.3%, much higher than the global average of 2–3% for conventional cotton.
- In Q4 2024, African cotton prices dropped by over 11% YoY, largely driven by weak Chinese demand and rising Indian exports.
- However, short-term spikes (e.g., February 2025’s 5.8% jump) showed how sensitive the market is to short-term demand from Turkey and Bangladesh.
Implications for Cotton Buyers
Strategic Sourcing Windows
Buyers can use seasonality to their advantage, timing purchases around the end of harvest (typically November to January), when supply is more abundant, and prices are often more competitive.
Diversify Origins
To hedge against African cotton volatility, procurement managers often source complementary volumes from C.I.S. or Indian BCI cotton to maintain supply consistency.
Use Price Forecasting Tools
Platforms like TexPro provide monthly forecasts, 5-year historical trend analysis, and regional volatility metrics, helping buyers lock in favorable contracts before major shifts.
Secure Long-Term Contracts
Working with trusted exporters under annual supply agreements can minimize exposure to short-term fluctuations and create more predictable sourcing costs.
TexPro's Role in Navigating African Cotton Volatility
TexPro tracks key cotton varieties, including African BCI, 28 mm, and CIF benchmark prices, offering:
- Biweekly updates on African cotton prices across key ports and trade corridors
- Forecasting tools that consider climate, logistics, and macroeconomic indicators
- Price comparison modules with Indian, Brazilian, and C.I.S. cotton to aid strategic sourcing
With these features, TexPro helps buyers respond proactively to market shifts and avoid overpaying during peak volatility.
Start Managing Cotton Volatility Better
TexPro equips procurement teams with the intelligence needed to navigate volatile African cotton markets confidently.